A tiered multidisciplinary approach to the psychosocial care of adult cancer patients integrated into routine care: the PROMPT study (a cluster-randomised controlled trial).

PURPOSE: A stepped-wedge cluster-randomised controlled trial was conducted to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of a brief psychosocial intervention for depressed cancer patients, delivered by trained front-line health professionals in routine clinical care. METHODS: Nine hundred two patients were assessed across four treatment centres which were allocated in random order from control epoch to intervention epoch. Eligible patients had Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) scores of 8 or greater. Of eligible patients, 222 were recruited in control epoch and 247 in intervention epoch. Twenty-seven health professionals (HPs) were trained to deliver the psychosocial intervention consisting of up to four sessions, tailored to patient symptoms and distress. HPs participated in group supervision with a psychiatrist. The primary outcome, analysed by intention to treat, was depression measured with the HADS at 10 weeks after receiving the intervention. RESULTS: At 10-week follow-up, there were no significant differences in HADS score for the 181 patients in control epoch and 177 in intervention epoch (adjusted difference -1.23, 95 % CI -3.81--1.35, p = 0.35). Patients with disease progression who received the intervention experienced significant benefits in unmet practical support needs including care and support, information, and physical and daily living. CONCLUSION: A brief psychosocial intervention delivered by front-line oncology health professionals is feasible to deliver but is insufficient as a stand-alone treatment for depression in cancer patients. Psychosocial interventions should be targeted to populations most likely to experience benefit.

Impact of tai-chi on falls among preclinically disabled older people. A randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effectiveness of tai-chi in preventing falls among community-dwelling older people. DESIGN: Multisite parallel group individually randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Melbourne, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Preclinically disabled community-dwelling people 70 + years (n = 503), without major medical conditions or moderate to severe cognitive impairment. INTERVENTION: Sixty-minute modified Sun style tai-chi group-based exercise program twice weekly for 48 weeks; control intervention was a seated group-based flexibility exercise program of the same dose. MEASUREMENTS: All falls, self-reported using a monthly calendar, analyzed at 24 weeks and 48 weeks. Injurious falls reported in follow-up telephone interviews for each reported fall. RESULTS: The adjusted fall incidence rate ratios at 24 and 48 weeks were 1.08 [(95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64-1.81)], and 1.12 (95% CI 0.75-1.67), respectively. A higher proportion of intervention participants ceased attendance in the first 24 weeks (difference 17.9%, 95% CI 9.6-25.8), and the second 24 weeks (2.7%, 95% CI -5.0 to 10.4). Intervention participants who ceased attendance had lower left quadriceps strength (difference 3.3 kg 95% CI 0.15-6.36) and required longer to complete the timed up and go test (difference 1.7 seconds 95% CI 0.22-3.17) at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not support modified Sun style tai-chi as a falls prevention measure among relatively well community-dwelling older people with modified mobility and at increased risk of disability. Insufficient intervention intensity, or low exercise class attendance may have contributed to the lack of effect, as may have attrition bias among the intervention group.

'Weekend on the town': discrete sessions of drug use for a sample of young psychostimulant users.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Few epidemiological studies have examined the behaviours and experiences of young adults during discrete drug-use events. This study was designed to capture a rich, detailed description of discrete occasions or 'sessions' of psychostimulant use. DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants were 220 young psychostimulant users living in Melbourne, Australia, recruited through targeted advertising in entertainment street press, on websites, at events/dance parties and through peer referral between September 2007 and March 2008. The research identified the timing, sequence, frequencies, quantities and modes of alcohol and other drug administration during the participants' most recent session of psychostimulant use and explored the contexts and settings in which drug use took place. RESULTS: Participants were well-educated young people who used a variety of different drugs. Their most recent session of psychostimulant use was reported as highly enjoyable and typical of their other sessions of psychostimulant use. The session lasted a median of 20 h, and in most cases, simultaneous drug use was the norm, and large quantities of alcohol, psychostimulants and other drugs were consumed. Acquisition of illicit drugs commonly occurred through social networks during the course of the session and significant sums of money were reportedly spent. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Findings point to a range of priorities for future research and public health interventions aimed at young psychostimulant users, focused primarily on reducing the prevalence and consequences of simultaneous and heavy/binge drug use.

Healthy aging in a cross-sectional study of Australian men: what has sex got to do with it?

AIM: To identify lifestyle factors associated with healthy aging in middle-aged and older Australian men. METHODS: A cross-sectional, population-based, computer-assisted telephone interview study explored self-reported health outcomes, and associated determinants for general and reproductive health (the Men in Australia Telephone Survey) in men aged 40 years and older (n = 5990). "Good health" was defined by self-reported health (excellent/very good) combined with absence of self-reported high blood pressure, heart disease, stroke, diabetes and depression symptoms. Categories of sexual activity frequency in the previous four weeks ranged from zero to 12+ times. RESULTS: "Good health" declined with increasing age with 17% of men over 70 years reporting "good health". In multivariable logistic regression models, significant inverse associations were found between modifiable lifestyle factors - both underweight and overweight/obesity, physical inactivity, smoking and high alcohol consumption - and "good health". Low-risk alcohol intake and living with a partner were positively associated with "good health". Sexual activity was also positively associated with "good health" (p < 0.001) with elevated odds ratios (ORs) for each category of frequency of sexual activity (1-4, 5-8, 9-12 or 12+ times in the past 4 weeks) relative to zero frequency (ORs 1.68 to 2.16). CONCLUSION: This study suggests that sexual activity is an important correlate of retaining good health in middle- and older-aged men, independent of other behavioral determinants.

Long-term pain prevalence and health-related quality of life outcomes for patients enrolled in a ketamine versus morphine for prehospital traumatic pain randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Improved early pain control may affect the longer-term prevalence of persistent pain. In a previous randomised, controlled trial, we found that the administration of ketamine on hospital arrival decreased pain scores to a greater extent than morphine alone in patients with prehospital traumatic pain. In this follow-up study, we sought to determine the prevalence of persistent pain and whether there were differences in patients who received ketamine or morphine. METHODS: This study was a long-term follow-up study of the prehospital, prospective, randomised, controlled, open-label study comparing ketamine with morphine in patients with trauma and a verbal pain score of >5 after 5 mg intravenous morphine. Patients were followed-up by telephone 6-12 months after enrollment, and a questionnaire including the SF-36 (V.2) health-related quality of life survey and the Verbal Numerical Rating Scale for pain was administered. RESULTS: A total of 97/135 (72%) patients were able to be followed-up 6-12 months after enrollment between July 2008 and July 2010. Overall, 44/97 (45%) participants reported persistent pain related to their injury, with 3/97 (3%) reporting persistent severe pain. The prevalence of persistent pain was the same between study groups (22/50 (44%) for the ketamine group vs 22/47 (46%) for the morphine group). There was no difference in the SF-36 scores between study arms. CONCLUSIONS: There is a high incidence of persistent pain after traumatic injury, even in patients with relatively minor severity of injury. Although decreased pain scores at hospital arrival are achieved with ketamine compared with morphine, this difference does not affect the prevalence of persistent pain or health-related quality of life 6 months after injury. Further larger studies are required to confirm this finding. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12607000441415).

Validating and Improving Injury Burden Estimates Study: the Injury-VIBES study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Priority setting, identification of unmet and changing healthcare needs, service and policy planning, and the capacity to evaluate the impact of health interventions requires valid and reliable methods for quantifying disease and injury burden. The methodology developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies has been adopted to estimate the burden of disease in national, regional and global projects. However, there has been little validation of the methods for estimating injury burden using empirical data. OBJECTIVE: To provide valid estimates of the burden of non-fatal injury using empirical data. SETTING: Data from prospective cohort studies of injury outcomes undertaken in the UK, USA, Australia, New Zealand and The Netherlands. DESIGN AND PARTICIPANTS: Meta-analysis of deidentified, patient-level data from over 40 000 injured participants in six prospective cohort studies: Victorian State Trauma Registry, Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry, UK Burden of Injury study, Prospective Outcomes of Injury study, National Study on Costs and Outcomes of Trauma and the Dutch Injury Patient Survey. ANALYSIS: Data will be systematically analysed to evaluate and refine injury classification, development of disability weights, establishing the duration of disability and handling of cases with more than one injury in burden estimates. Developed methods will be applied to incidence data to compare and contrast various methods for estimating non-fatal injury burden. CONTRIBUTION TO THE FIELD: The findings of this international collaboration have the capacity to drive how injury burden is measured for future GBD estimates and for individual country or region-specific studies.

Cluster randomised controlled trial of a peer-led lifestyle intervention program: study protocol for the Kerala diabetes prevention program.

BACKGROUND: India currently has more than 60 million people with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and this is predicted to increase by nearly two-thirds by 2030. While management of those with T2DM is important, preventing or delaying the onset of the disease, especially in those individuals at 'high risk' of developing T2DM, is urgently needed, particularly in resource-constrained settings. This paper describes the protocol for a cluster randomised controlled trial of a peer-led lifestyle intervention program to prevent diabetes in Kerala, India. METHODS/DESIGN: A total of 60 polling booths are randomised to the intervention arm or control arm in rural Kerala, India. Data collection is conducted in two steps. Step 1 (Home screening): Participants aged 30-60 years are administered a screening questionnaire. Those having no history of T2DM and other chronic illnesses with an Indian Diabetes Risk Score value of ≥60 are invited to attend a mobile clinic (Step 2). At the mobile clinic, participants complete questionnaires, undergo physical measurements, and provide blood samples for biochemical analysis. Participants identified with T2DM at Step 2 are excluded from further study participation. Participants in the control arm are provided with a health education booklet containing information on symptoms, complications, and risk factors of T2DM with the recommended levels for primary prevention. Participants in the intervention arm receive: (1) eleven peer-led small group sessions to motivate, guide and support in planning, initiation and maintenance of lifestyle changes; (2) two diabetes prevention education sessions led by experts to raise awareness on T2DM risk factors, prevention and management; (3) a participant handbook containing information primarily on peer support and its role in assisting with lifestyle modification; (4) a participant workbook to guide self-monitoring of lifestyle behaviours, goal setting and goal review; (5) the health education booklet that is given to the control arm. Follow-up assessments are conducted at 12 and 24 months. The primary outcome is incidence of T2DM. Secondary outcomes include behavioural, psychosocial, clinical, and biochemical measures. An economic evaluation is planned. DISCUSSION: Results from this trial will contribute to improved policy and practice regarding lifestyle intervention programs to prevent diabetes in India and other resource-constrained settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12611000262909.

Longitudinal weight gain in women identified with polycystic ovary syndrome: results of an observational study in young women.

OBJECTIVE: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) affects 6-18% of women. The natural history of weight gain in women with PCOS has not been well described. Here we aimed to examine longitudinal weight gain in women with and without PCOS and to assess the association between obesity and PCOS prevalence. DESIGN AND METHODS: The observational study was set in the general community. Participants were women randomly selected from the national health insurance scheme (Medicare) database. Mailed survey data were collected by the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Data from respondents to survey 4, aged 28-33 years (2006, n = 9,145) were analyzed. The main outcome measures were PCOS prevalence and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Self-reported PCOS prevalence was 5.8% (95% CI: 5.3%-6.4%). Women reporting PCOS had higher weight, mean BMI [2.5 kg/m(2) (95% CI: 1.9-3.1)], and greater 10-year weight gain [2.6 kg (95% CI: 1.2-4.0)]. BMI was the strongest correlate of PCOS status with every BMI increment increasing the risk of reporting PCOS by 9.2% (95% CI: 6%-12%). CONCLUSIONS: This community based observational study with longitudinal reporting of weight shows that weight, BMI, and 10-year weight gain were higher in PCOS. We report the novel finding that obesity and greater weight gain are significantly associated with PCOS status. Considering the prevalence, major health and economic burden of PCOS, the increasing weight gain in young women, and established benefits of weight loss, these results have major public health implications.

Nocturnal dipping is preserved in children with sleep disordered breathing regardless of its severity.

OBJECTIVE: Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) in adults has been associated with a loss of nocturnal dipping in blood pressure (BP) and heart rate, however, there have been limited studies in children. We measured BP non-invasively and continuously overnight in 105 children aged 7-12 with a range of severities of SDB and 36 non-snoring controls to examine nocturnal dipping profiles. STUDY DESIGN: Children with SDB were divided into three severity groups according to their obstructive apnea hypopnea index. Nocturnal dipping profiles across sleep stages were described both as a proportion of children exhibiting a ≥10% fall in systolic arterial pressure (SAP) and heart rate (HR) from wake to sleep and according to SAP sleep/SAP wake ratio as extreme dippers (ratio ≤ 0.8), dippers (ratio < 0.8 and ≤0.9), non-dippers (ratio < 0.9 and ≤1.0), and reverse dippers (ratio > 1.0). RESULTS: The mean fall in BP between wake and NREM 1/2, SWS, and REM sleep was not different between the groups and there were no differences between the dipping profiles of children in each group. CONCLUSIONS: SDB did not alter nocturnal dipping patterns of BP and HR compared to controls, a finding which may suggest that these young children have not been exposed to the effects of SDB long enough or that SDB severity was not great enough to affect nocturnal dipping profiles. However, further studies are required to determine if the elevated BP previously reported in this group of children will have long-term effects on the cardiovascular system.

A prospective multicentre study of barriers to discharge from inpatient rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the prevalence of and reasons for barriers to discharge from inpatient rehabilitation, to measure the resulting additional days in hospital, and to determine if these were predicted by key demographic or clinical variables. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective open cohort study of 360 patients admitted into two inpatient rehabilitation units in Melbourne over an 8-02 and a 10-02 period in 2008. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occurrence of discharge barriers, their causes and the duration of unnecessary hospitalisation. RESULTS: There were 360 patients in the study sample, 186 were female (51.7%), and mean age was 58.4 years. Fifty-nine (16.4%) patients had a discharge barrier. The most frequent causes of discharge barriers were patients being non-weight bearing after lower limb fracture, family deliberations about discharge planning, waiting for home modifications and waiting for accommodation. Patients with acquired brain damage and lower limb fracture were the impairment groups most likely to experience a discharge barrier. Over the study period, 21.0% (3152/14 976) of all bed-days were occupied by patients deemed to have a discharge barrier. Regression analysis showed that age, sex, impairment group and dependency level on admission all influenced the occurrence of a discharge barrier. Although regression analysis showed that dependency on admission and age group were significant predictors of additional days in hospital resulting from discharge barriers (P = 0.006), these variables explained only 11% of the additional bed-days. CONCLUSION: Barriers to discharge from inpatient rehabilitation are common and substantial, and they represent an important opportunity for improvement.

The social location of heavy episodic alcohol consumption in the Victorian population.

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: To examine heavy episodic drinking across demographic subgroups to identify where heavy episodic drinking is socially located in an Australian state. DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional survey, 2483 adult Victorians using Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing. Two measures of heavy drinking were used: (i) heavy episodic drinking-more than five standard drinks at least weekly; and (ii) typically heavy drinking-50% or more of all drinking occasions involving consumption of 5+ standard drinks. Associations between heavy episodic drinking and eight potential sociodemographic correlates (gender, age, education, income, marital status, ethnic origin, religion and geographical remoteness) were examined. RESULTS: There were few significant correlates of heavy episodic drinking apart from gender and age, once gender and age were controlled. Men were more likely to report heavy episodic drinking than women, but this was attenuated in the measure of typically heavy drinking, suggesting that women reporting heavy episodic drinking were more likely to typically drink that much when they drank. Younger people were more likely to report weekly heavy episodic drinking and more likely to report engaging in this pattern on at least half of their drinking occasions, and this was also true for those unmarried or in de facto relationships. Those of Asian background were less likely to report heavy drinking. In multivariate analysis, the remaining sociodemographic variables were largely unrelated to the drinking measures. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: The study clearly shows that the prevalence of heavy episodic drinking varies particularly across gender and age groups in Victoria. These variations appear to hold across key sociodemographic variables such as income and education.

The relationship between alcohol use and injecting drug use: impacts on health, crime and wellbeing.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: People who inject drugs (PWID) are at risk of a variety of adverse outcomes. Previous research suggests that alcohol, when consumed with opioids, is a risk factor for overdose, but there has been less investigation of the effects of alcohol consumption on other health, criminogenic or life satisfaction outcomes. In this paper we explore the effects of alcohol on outcomes for PWID across a variety of life domains. METHODS: Baseline data were drawn from the Melbourne Injecting Drug User cohort study, which is a cohort of 688 PWID. Drinking scores were generated from the AUDIT-C (0, 1-7, 8+) and associations between them and health (recent heroin overdose, Emergency Department use), criminogenic (violent and nonviolent crime) and life satisfaction (personal wellbeing) outcomes were examined using logistic and linear regression. RESULTS: While around 36% of the cohort reported past-month abstinence from alcohol, 44% scored between 1 and 7 and 20% above 7 on the AUDIT-C. A score above 7 was associated with perpetration of violent crime and lower personal wellbeing ratings than a score of 0, after adjusting for potential confounders. There was no association between alcohol and other outcomes examined, after adjustment for confounders. CONCLUSION: Cohort participants who drink heavily were more likely to report engaging in violent crime and poorer life satisfaction. The relationship between alcohol and the offending behaviours of the cohort was consistent with the effects of alcohol on violent offending in the broader community.

Monash transient ischemic attack triaging treatment: safety of a transient ischemic attack mechanism-based outpatient model of care.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Controversy surrounds the need for routine hospital admission for transient ischemic attack. The Monash Transient Ischemic Attack Triaging Treatment (M3T) model adopts rapid management in the emergency department followed by outpatient management prioritized by stroke mechanism. We compared safety and processes of care between M3T and the previous model of routine admission. METHODS: Study cohorts consisted of patients managed with M3T (2004-2007) and the previous model (2003-2004). We determined 90-day stroke outcome using clinical and medical record review and data linkage to the population level state-wide hospital discharge morbidity database. We compared models of care using risk difference analysis, followed by logistic regression to adjust for previous indicators of risk. Secondary outcomes were proportions admitted, proportions undergoing carotid ultrasound, times to ultrasound and revascularization, and medication prescription. RESULTS: In M3T (mean age, 64.7±14.7) 85/488 (17.4%) patients were admitted compared with 117/169 (62.9%) in the previous model (mean age, 72.5±13.9). With near-complete follow-up, 90-day stroke outcome was 1.50% (95% confidence interval, 0.73%-3.05%) in M3T and 4.67% (95% confidence interval, 2.28%-9.32%) in the previous model (P=0.03). Compared with the previous model, the adjusted odds ratio of stroke for M3T was 0.46 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-1.68; P=0.24). M3T was associated with greater proportions undergoing carotid ultrasound (P<0.001) and receiving antiplatelet therapy (P=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The M3T system was associated with low 90-day stroke outcome in transient ischemic attack patients, providing proof of concept that these patients may be managed safely without routine hospital admission using a closely supervised protocol in the emergency department.

Which patients have missing data? An analysis of missingness in a trauma registry.

BACKGROUND: Trauma registry data are almost always incomplete. Multiple imputation can reduce bias in registry analyses but the ideal approach would be to improve data capture. The aim of this study was to identify, using multiple imputation, which type of patients were most likely to have incomplete data. METHODS: An analysis of prospectively collected regional trauma registry data over one year was performed. Analyses were conducted following complete data estimation using multiple imputation. Variables necessary for TRISS analysis and with incomplete data were analysed. For each variable, logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of missingness. A p-value of less than 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. RESULTS: There were 2520 cases. The variables with the greatest proportion of missing observations were respiratory rate, GCS, Qualifier (of GCS and respiratory rate) and systolic blood pressure. The Qualifier variable described whether or not the patient was intubated and mechanically ventilated at the time the first hospital GCS and respiratory rate were recorded. GCS and respiratory rate were more likely to be missing (imputed) when abnormal (unadjusted ORs: 8.6 (p<0.001) and 2.1 (p=0.02), respectively). The most important determinant of a valid GCS or respiratory rate was the Qualifier. There was no association between whether the systolic blood pressure and Qualifier were missing (imputed) and whether they were estimated to be abnormal. Following multivariable analysis, data for all four variables were more likely to be missing when the patient died in hospital. Additional independent predictors of a missing GCS or respiratory rate were an abnormal pre-hospital GCS and severe chest injury. The Qualifier and systolic blood pressure were more likely to be missing where the patient was transferred from the primary hospital. CONCLUSION: The major independent predictor of missing primary hospital physiological variables was death in hospital. An abnormal GCS was more likely to be missing from the regional trauma registry dataset. Predictors of a missing GCS or respiratory rate included whether the patient was intubated, an abnormal pre-hospital GCS and severe chest injury. Augmenting resources to record the initial observations of the more severely injured patients would improve data quality. Multiple imputation can be used to inform data capture.

Application of Variable Life Adjusted Displays (VLAD) on Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset (VAED).

BACKGROUND: The need to improve patient safety has been identified as a major priority for health reform in developed countries, including Australia. We investigated the implementation and appropriateness of Variable Life Adjusted Displays as a quality control procedure to monitor "in-control" versus "out-of-control" processes in Victorian public hospitals. METHODS: Victorian Admitted Episode Data from Department of Human Services, Victoria for 2004-7 were used. The VLAD is a plot of a cumulative sum of the difference in expected outcome (range 0-1) and observed outcome (0 or 1) for sequential separations. Three outcomes were assessed: in-hospital mortality for acute myocardial infarction, stroke and heart failure. Logistic regression was used to obtain a realistic measure of expected mortality over the period 2004-5, adjusting for covariates and comorbidities, to estimate expected mortality risk for the separations between 2005-7. VLAD were plotted for the years 2005-7, by the 11 hospitals with the highest frequency of separations. Signalling limits for 30%, 50% and 75% risk decrease and risk increase were determined and plotted for each VLAD utilizing risk-adjusted cumulative sum techniques. This is a likelihood-ratio test statistic for signalling. If the VLAD signalled by intersecting with a limit, the limit was reset. RESULTS: The three logit models displayed reasonable fit to the observed data. There were n = 2999 separations in the AMI model, n = 3598 in the HF model and n = 1922 in the stroke model. The number of separations plotted by VLAD ranged from n = 126 to n = 648. No signals were observed in 64%, 55% and 18% of VLAD for AMI, HF and stroke respectively. For AMI and HF 9% of hospitals signalled at least once for each of 30%, 50% and 75% risk increase, whereas this was 45% for stroke. Hospitals signalling at least once for risk decrease ranged from 18% to 36% across the levels of risk and outcomes. No VLAD signalled for both risk decrease and increase. CONCLUSIONS: VLAD intersecting with limits to signal "out-of-control" states, may be an appropriate technique to help hospitals assess quality control. Preliminary work displays some between hospital differences. Relevant signals can be used to investigate why a system is potentially performing better than or worse than expected. Types and levels of investigation could depend on the type of signalling. Validation work, for example attempting to correlate signals with clinical notes, prior to VLAD distribution needs to be undertaken.

Improving the efficiency of telephone-based disease management programs: getting the population and the timing right using hospital admission data.

Telephone-based disease management (DM) programs can improve health outcomes and provide a positive return on investment to funders. However, there is scant evidence about how to use hospital admission episode data to identify patients who are most likely to participate in a DM program. The objective of this study was to use hospital admission episode data held by health insurers to determine those factors that predict members with chronic disease joining and remaining in a DM program for at least 6 months. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to determine predictors of participating in a DM program for an insured population who had been admitted to hospital for congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The outcome variable was binary: did the member both opt into the DM program and remain in the program for at least 6 months? The study population included 9874 private health fund members. Time from a related hospital admission was a significant predictor, with those offered the program within 3 to 6 months being 71% more likely (95% confidence interval [CI]: 33%, 113%) to participate. The length of time from offer to commencement also was a significant predictor, with those commencing within 3 to 4 months being 75% (95% CI: 44%, 112%) as likely to remain in the program. It is possible to predict which individuals are most likely to participate in a telephone-based DM program using hospital admission episode data. Once individuals are identified, timely commencement of a DM program is an important predictor of success.

Performance of the ABCD2 score for stroke risk post TIA: meta-analysis and probability modeling.

OBJECTIVE: To study the accuracy of the ABCD2 score in predicting early stroke risk following TIA and to model post-test probability of stroke for varying cutoff scores and baseline stroke risk. METHODS: Medline, PubMed, Embase, conference proceedings, and manuscript references up to October 2010 were searched for studies reporting ABCD2 score and stroke outcome after TIA. Additional data were requested from authors. Meta-analysis, meta-regression, and post-test probability modeling were undertaken to assess prediction of stroke at 2, 7, and 90 days. RESULTS: Of 44 eligible studies, data were available for 33 (16,070 patients): 26/33 reported stroke at 2 days (533 strokes), 32/33 at 7 days (781 strokes), and 28/33 at 90 days (1,028 strokes) after TIA. Using scores 0-3 ("low risk") and 4-7 ("high risk") for stroke at 7 days, pooled measures were sensitivity 0.89 (0.87-0.91), specificity 0.34 (0.33-0.35), positive predictive value 0.08 (0.07-0.09), negative predictive value 0.98 (0.98-0.98), positive likelihood ratio (PLR) 1.43 (1.33-1.54), negative likelihood ratio (NLR) 0.40 (0.33-0.50), and area under the curve (AUC) 0.70 (0.62-0.78). Results were similar at days 2 and 90. There was moderate heterogeneity while pooling PLR (p < 0.01, I(2) >50%), with stroke specialist TIA diagnosis associated with slightly higher PLR. At 5% baseline stroke risk, ABCD2 >3 indicated an absolute increase in 7-day stroke risk of only 2.0% while a score ≤3 indicated a 2.9% decrease in risk. Changes in risk were very small when baseline stroke risk was lower. CONCLUSIONS: The ABCD2 score leads to only small revisions of baseline stroke risk particularly in settings of very low baseline risk and when used by nonspecialists.

Diabetes prevalence and determinants in adults in China mainland from 2000 to 2010: a systematic review.

AIMS: To systematically review trends in diabetes mellitus (DM) prevalence in adults in China over the last 10 years and to identify the determinants of these trends. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted for studies published between 2000 and 2010. Studies reporting DM prevalence were included if they met the pre-determined criteria. The prevalence estimates and reported determinants of these studies were compared. RESULTS: Twenty-five manuscripts, reporting on 22 studies, were selected for inclusion in the review. There has been an increase in DM prevalence from 2.6% to 9.7% in China over the past decade. DM prevalence is strongly associated with age and is higher in urban residents compared with rural populations. Some studies found a difference in DM prevalence between males and females, but this finding was not consistent. Other commonly reported associations with DM included family history, obesity and hypertension. CONCLUSION: Over the period of 2000-2010, we identify a significant increase in DM prevalence at the national level. It is important for all levels of government to develop more effective strategies to prevent and manage this rising diabetes epidemic. There is also an important need for more large-scale studies of diabetes in the western and central regions of China.

Splenectomy sequelae: an analysis of infectious outcomes among adults in Victoria.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risk and timing of a broad range of infective outcomes and mortality after splenectomy. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of a non-identifiable linked hospital discharge administrative dataset for splenectomy cases between July 1998 and December 2006 in Victoria, Australia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age, sex, indication for splenectomy, infectious events and death. Patients splenectomised for trauma were compared with patients splenectomised for other indications. Infectious risk was established using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 2574 patients underwent splenectomy (with 8648 person-years follow-up). Paediatric cases were excluded, leaving 2472 adult cases for analysis. The most common reasons for splenectomy were trauma (635 [25.7%]) and therapeutic haematological indications (583 [23.6%]). After splenectomy, 644 adult patients (26.0%) had a severe infection, with a rate of 8.0 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 7.2-8.4). The risk of severe infection was highest among patients aged > [corrected] 50 years (10.1 [corrected] per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 9.3-11.1) [corrected] and those splenectomised for malignancy (14.2 per 100 person-years; 95% CI, 11.8-17.1). Gram-negative infections represented the most frequent causative organism group accounting for 698 (51%) of bacterial pathogens. Staphylococcus aureus was the second most common causative organism. CONCLUSION: The incidence of severe infection and all-cause mortality differed according to age and underlying reason for splenectomy, and was highest among the elderly and those with malignancy, and was lowest among trauma patients. This highlights the need for targeted prevention programs.

Prognostic models based on administrative data alone inadequately predict the survival outcomes for critically ill patients at 180 days post-hospital discharge.

UNLABELLED: There is interest in evaluating the quality of critical care by auditing patient outcomes after hospital discharge. Risk adjustment using acuity of illness scores, such as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE III) scores, derived from clinical databases is commonly performed for in-hospital mortality outcome measures. However, these clinical databases do not routinely track patient outcomes after hospital discharge. Linkage of clinical databases to administrative data sets that maintain records on patient survival after discharge can allow for the measurement of survival outcomes of critical care patients after hospital discharge while using validated risk adjustment methods. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare the ability of 4 methods of risk adjustment to predict survival of critically ill patients at 180 days after hospital discharge: one using only variables from an administrative data set, one using only variables from a clinical database, a model using a full range of administrative and clinical variables, and a model using administrative variables plus APACHE III scores. DESIGN: This was a population-based cohort study. PATIENTS: The study sample consisted of adult (>15 years of age) residents of Victoria, Australia, admitted to a public hospital intensive care unit between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2006 (n = 47,312 linked cases). Logistic regression analyses were used to develop the models. RESULTS: The administrative-only model was the poorest predictor of mortality at 180 days after hospital discharge (C = 0.73). The clinical model had substantially better predictive capabilities (C = 0.82), whereas the full-linked model achieved similar performance (C = 0.83). Adding APACHE III scores to the administrative model also had reasonable predictive capabilities (C = 0.83). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of APACHE III scores to administrative data substantially improved model performance to the level of the clinical model. Although linking data systems requires some investment, having the ability to evaluate case ascertainment and accurately risk adjust outcomes of intensive care patients after discharge will add valuable insights into clinical audit and decision-making processes.